The U.S. draws into a Group of Death - Italy, Czech Republic, and Ghana. Ouch. Most everyone agrees this is one of the top 2 toughest groups (with Argentina, Holland, Serbia, and Ivory Coast being the other). Our prospects for repeating the performance of '02 are pretty grim. Here's Grant Wahl's analysis.
Here's what I think, at first glance:
-We have a very good chance of beating Italy. They're a flagging old soccer power, and I think we've got a knack for playing well against teams that have that historical arrogance. We performed quite well against the Germans in '02 and I think they're a better team than the Italians. Of course, I haven't seen the Italians play in a long time so we'll have to see...
-The Czechs scare me the most. They have been playing extreeeemely well lately. The proximity to the Czech Republic means that they may have a pseudo home-field advantage too. I think we'll be lucky if we tie them.
-Ghana have superb talent in Essien but I think we'll be able to take them out relatively easily if Arena can make sure the guys don't take them too lightly. These uber-athletic African teams always manage to surprise in the big dance.
The most difficult thing in replicating our success of the past Cup, beyond merely advancing, is that we'll play the winner of the Brazil group (assuming we come in 2nd) - so we'll be playing Brazil if we advance. My money's on Brazil to win, so we're pretty much screwed.
Here's hoping we get lucky...
Friday, December 09, 2005
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4 comments:
On the plus side, if we advance from this group, we should be primed and ready for battle...
all I gotta say is don't immediately count the US out. Barely anyone predicted the US was gonna finish in the top 8 last time. They all thought Portugal and South Korea was gonna advance. We took out Portugal, we took out Mexico, we almost took out Germany.
Czech Republic (I know most will disagree) are flashes in the pan. I'm sorry, so what if they're ranked #2. Rankings in any sport is flawed anyways. Just opinions based on some formula. Besides, everyone and their moms predicted Greece would make it to World Cup just because they won the Euro Cup. Look at them today. Don't base any team's future success on their past success. I don't know why everyone always predicts teams' success just because they did well on some past competition.
As long as US doesn't slack off against Ghana, stay focused on Italy, and not get too spun up over the whole Czech are #2, they may advance.
I see them playing Brazil frankly in Round of 16....THAT'S when things are gonna get rough.
I don't know man, the Czechs have been playing quite well lately. They were the highest scoring team in UEFA qualifying. I discount them at first sight too (ranked #2?!) but they had a tough qualification road (grouped with Holland). I don't think rankings matter much either - about the only one that's correct in the FIFA formula is Brazil being #1.
I'm thinking it's not toooo bad (we could have drawn with Holland and another top seed) and will take these 3 factors to advance:
1)Bruce Arena fosters a sense of "us against the world" in the guys - that seems to help us a lot in the past and will help us keep from taking Ghana too lightly. I think the lack of this feeling leads to complacency and/or a sense of entitlement and eventually disaster (like the loss in '98 to Iran, the loss to Poland in '02). Keep 'em focused.
2)Kasey Keller. If he has a bad game then we are going to lose, period. He's the rock of the team. We can afford to have one of our superstar goal scorers like Donovan have a bad game, but we can't afford our keeper having a bad game. Honestly, I think he's the primary reason for our country's success in the past several years.
3)Luck. We've got such a terrible record playing European teams in Europe that in addition to Arena calming the guys, we'll need a little bit of "outside" help - kind of like our win over Colombia in '92, courtesy of Andres Escobar.
If we advance and play Brazil, that game will be a turning point in US soccer. If we can beat Brazil in a World Cup match, then we've got an awesome shot at actually winning the whole thing, or at least making the final 2. That would boost this sports popularity here. Americans like to see winners and until we can prove we're the best soccer will still remain a side-sport.
Lots of potential in this tournament...
that's the key word I've been trying to say all along (but just couldn't think it) is potential. I hope the whole world overlooks us again like in 2002. They'll boo us for sure since it'll be in Europe and those nimrods are still peeing all over themselves over wars and such. That's really one of the main factors the US needs to advance is the whole world being against us.
Since the Euros are synonymous with pomp and egos (even though they don't deserve it because nothing of value even exists over there frankly, ooo, you got castles and chips, so what), it'll happen.
It could have been MUCH worse. If we drew into Argentina, Holland, Serbia, I can' see us advancing. It would've been better if we were in the Brazil group. I think we have a chance beating Croatia and Japan...and then Rd of 16 we'd probably play Czech or Italy. Oh well.
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