On to Next Year...

We live in an interesting time politically. The national debt is fast approaching eight times the amount collected in taxes by the government with the year to year deficit tripling the year of President Obama’s inauguration and with 29% of the national debt having been accumulated during his three years in office. In order to simply get to the point where the country is broke the government would have to somehow collect taxes while completely shut down for almost eight years. No big deal says economists who tell us that the United State’s debt to GDP ratio is still less than Greece’s never mind the fact that our economy is 45 times the size of Greece’s. The public is told that the assorted and mostly unspecific sins of the previous administration are to blame for all ills, imagined and real, ignoring a record that can be easily researched. The public is told that the previous eight years were a time when inequality reigned and conditions were worse relying on short memories. Intentions are judged as a substitution for cost and consequences with unemployment augmented by the impossible to enumerate jobs ‘saved or created’ and improved by a shrinking workforce of discouraged former workers. Credit is claimed for the aversion of an imaginary depression by a President who considers himself the fourth greatest in our nation’s history and considers the definition of compromise as the capitulation to his policy preferences.

2012 brings with it an election for President to determine whether our country continues on current course or not. For many, 2011 was a forgettable year with simple stagnation being as good as it gets for those fortunate enough not to face drawbacks. It’s easy to blame others, the rich, corporations, greed, etc. for any problem that persists in spite of oversold political solutions. It’s more difficult to contemplate the real actual costs associated with those political solutions and compare them to any sort of tangible benefit. Because almost all government spending is considered mandatory it is difficult to conclude that massive course correction is possible on the scale necessary to ensure responsible government spending levels commiserate with its responsibilities and without confiscatory levels of taxation that might not even be enough to satisfy politician’s voracious appetite for goodies. On the precipice that our country faces an honest examination of the issues is paramount but will likely be overtaken by myths and name-calling as rent seekers attempt to maintain their place within the federal government’s favor.

While the reality can be discouraging there is some hope for optimism. The amount of information available to anyone has led to a much more educated populace aware of the structure of our government. Many saw through the nonsense of the Occupy Wall Street ‘movement’ and their sophomoric grievances regardless of the constant pandering by the mainstream news outlets. 2012 will certainly be a year of learning and a time to pay attention and participate. Happy New Year.

Not all 1% is Equal, Apparently

There was an interesting conversation on the Rush Limbaugh radio program this morning between economist (and guest host) Water Williams and economist Thomas Sowell with regard to the 1% of Occupy Wall Street Fame. They brought up the curiosity that the protesters do not seem to resent high earners in the entertainment and professional sports fields even though they decidedly earn enough to be part of the dreaded top 1%. The conversation went to the point that it doesn’t matter because just like anyone else in that bracket their earnings are basically earned. And that is the point. I don’t understand why going to the movie theater costs so much because I consider it to be an unpleasant experience. I don’t understand why Miley Cyrus’s films are so much a larger draw than Mike Judge’s. I think that professional sporting events are prohibitively expensive and I don’t go very often as a result. But, enough people that aren’t me are willing to pay the costs allowing for large compensation. Practically, the large difference in pay between a starring actor in a movie and a crew member is no different than the large difference in pay between the CEO and staff member working within the corporation that makes the movie amongst other things. To my understanding the reason for the Occupy cult’s disability with regard to this understanding is in line with their general misunderstanding of reality and the economy and what exactly Wall Street is and does. That, and pure unadulterated jealousy.

Playoff Bound?

The Denver Broncos are masters of their postseason destiny this week. Win and they’re in the playoffs. If the Raiders lose to the Chargers, they’re also in. Twin losses would make the Broncos more lucky than good and will unlikely lead to any kind of playoff success. The Broncos have had a difficult two weeks leading to the season finale losing by large margins to the Patriots and the Bills behind turnovers and porous defense, two traits absent in their six game winning streak. Sports commentators itching for an end to Tim Tebow’s success were provided ammunition to point out flaws in his game and just as he was said to have been credited too much when the team was winning he was loaded with much blame in defeat and definitely played at a lower level.

This week’s opponents, the Chiefs are quarterbacked by Kyle Orton, the former Broncos starter benched in favor of Tebow earlier this season and unceremoniously cut several weeks ago to save Denver from paying his salary. Orton ended up being claimed by three teams after being cut and has played well for the Chiefs. Because of the history it is impossible not to consider the implications of Orton wanting to extract ‘revenge’ against the team that cut him but it’s not too certain. After all, what scenario would be better for a soon-to-be free agent quarterback? Sitting on the bench for a team with zero interest in resigning them, or being cut in-season and starting for a new team a week later as an audition for future suitors? Orton was not playing well for the Broncos and he is in a better personal situation. Because of his knowledge of the Broncos, Orton could provide advantages for the Chiefs this week but it doesn’t seem as though there is much of a motive for revenge, other than the bothers associated with moving.

Whatever happens will happen this week and the Broncos couldn’t ask for better conditions. They, after all, know as much of Orton as he does of them and the game is in Denver against a team that they have already beaten this season. I will be cheering for a Raiders loss like I always do but I don’t want Denver to enter the playoffs by default, go Broncos.

Random Hours

The other day I found myself somewhere where I usually am not, visiting in-laws, and wasting time going to the post office in order to send a watch back for warranty repair that did not work. On the way back my wife offered to take me to her hometown’s finest coffee spot which we learned was closed driving past. She apologized for the missed opportunity deriding the random hours of the shop. I’ve heard this particular description of a store’s hours more than a few times and figure that enough is enough. Beyond bemoaning the characterization I will in the next paragraphs describe what random hours would be.

What’s the big deal exactly? There is none, I just happen to wince at the concept of ‘random hours’ as a statistical industry worker and it seemed like something fun to write up. After all, it’s unlikely anyone actually means that the hours are actually random; they aren’t random to shop keeps and workers at the place that is open during somewhat unconventional times for some potential consumers. And if they never opened at times convenient to anyone they wouldn’t be open for very long anyway.

What could truly random hours look like? A shop keep could create an acceptable range of starting hours and then assign each to an integer. Using a random number generator on a computer, say Excel’s RANDBETWEEN() function, they would draw a uniformly distributed random number between the lowest and highest integers assigned to the starting hours. A uniformly distributed integer is a whole number that is drawn between the minimum and maximum of a group of numbers. These random draws are expected to be uniformly distributed, each of the numbers are equally likely to be drawn at any time, and as the number of draws grows larger each number is expected to be drawn an equal number of times. Once the shop keep had the random open time ready they could then perform a second random draw correlating to the number of minutes to be open. That would be random.

That’s a lot of drivel to debunk the idea that there are places that exist with owners who open at completely random hours. It won’t comfort those who can’t fathom the idea that they, as a bored out-of-town one time customer diverted off the main road isn’t exactly a lucrative customer base.

What if it isn't covered?

Obamacare requires most health insurance plans to cover the cost of what is determined by HHS to be preventative health care. This mandate is popular because it is considered free and there are many people of the opinion that preventative health care should be cost free to the end consumer, some holding that opinion even if the end consumer has no health plan coverage. The notion of ‘free’ health care exists as the triumph of good intentions over logic and reality. And in a society more concerned with intentions than reality this nonsense will likely persist.

There are innumerable reasons why there is no such thing as ‘free’ health care and it should be obvious as health care services are tangible goods. Every regulation the government passes designating certain aspects as being cost-free increases the cost of coverage and actually hurts some people. Preventative care is only preventative to people who will have those health problems designated by the government. Paying for those services out of an insurance policy removes coverage for other services. Those with health problems not considered significant enough to mandate coverage for will suffer for it financially and health-wise. Just because certain ailments may be considered to be statistically irrelevant to government bureaucrats doesn’t make it so to real, actual people.

Government only knows how to apply anything in broad strokes, with federal government’s the broadest. Health care is a very individual decision and government mandates removes the individual from that decision. With no responsibility for an intimate decision and no knowledge of the real actual costs associated with it the citizenry will only become more ignorant of the health care market which will only lead to increased cost and no mechanism for individual needs to be met. Obamacare means hoping that if one ever requires some kind of health care that it is considered necessary by the government.

Are they Really a Weasel?

Writer Gregg Easterbrook has a running meme through his ESPN Tuesday Morning Quarterback column titled ‘Weasel Coach Watch’. The Weasel Coach is basically defined as a coach, mostly college football, leaving a position before the conclusion of a season and their contract. Easterbrook is hardly the only writer who takes the occasion of coaches moving about for what ostensively is a better job to hammer out a pious column calling out the so-called offender. To me, it’s difficult to get worked up about it happening. Mostly because it’s a common occurrence and the composition of the college football season lends itself to it. Basically with prime recruiting season starting during that time in between a college team’s final regular season and bowl game, college teams actively attempt to hire coaches during that time. It’s also difficult to imagine that a coach, no matter how tenured, wouldn’t leave when they have to for a new, preferable opportunity (that is, based on the timeline and requirements of the new job) for whatever reason. Certainly it’s tough for continuity but those same coaches can be fired at any moment. Perhaps there is an effect on the players who remain but they are young adults and no matter how disappointed they may be, a coach leaving does not diminish their abilities or status on the team. While ‘weasel coach’ might make a good headline, it’s really just a person attempting to do better for themselves.