if anyone turns on the TV, you'd think Obama won already. But it's still possible McCain can win.
the states I think Obama for-sure will win are: Maine, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, Washington DC, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Iowa, Washington, Oregon, California, Hawai'i. So far that's 255
for McCain: West Virginia, Carolinas, Georgia, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, Nevada, Arizona, Alaska - that's 261. Contrary to all the polls, I think McCain will pull off NC, FL, OH, IN, MO, Dakotas, CO, and NV, but I really wouldn't be surprised if Obama takes one of these states away from McCain.
here are the 3 states I didn't write down:
New Hampshire - almost guaranteed for Obama, but very McCain-friendly area
New Mexico - our home state decided the candidate by mere hundreds of votes since 2000. The closest state nationwide in the past presidential elections
Virginia - like New Hampshire, I don't think it should automatically go to Obama quite yet.
Of course if Obama gets all 3, he got it with 277. But all McCain needs is Virginia...ought to be an interesting election night. Either way, I think it's gonna be close and not the landslide many are predicting. And with an Obama victory, the good thing is we can hope for a conservative resurgence in 2010 and 2012. Let's just hope Obama won't be able to choose a SC Justice during his term *gulp*
Monday, October 27, 2008
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2 comments:
Now for a real comment. Damn spammers. I still believe a McCain victory is possible as well. As for the polling, it is wildly inaccurate. Because of the many ways in which the country is seperated and also the same across such a large geography and enourmous population, there is no reasonable determinant statistical sample other than the entire voting public. There is no probabilistic distribution that can accurately cover this country. The ways that polls are used is inherently dishonest as they are simply intenended to discourage some and emobolden others based on the preference of a given pollster.
Of course the polling is inaccurate. I've seen Obama leads range from 2 to 15 points. And in 2004, many had Kerry winning.
A real poll would simply ask all registered voters who you're voting for. Again that's unrealistic because they could be lying. Hence, the real poll is election day (or the many weeks before it).
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